tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post406450950003825576..comments2024-01-25T13:46:11.967-06:00Comments on The Bronze Blog: The Egotism of the Fine Tuning FallacyRyan Michaelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14750814560493466382noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-80367417505887612552009-09-14T03:11:52.778-05:002009-09-14T03:11:52.778-05:00"Anonymous said...
Karl, dort ist ein toter ..."Anonymous said... <br />Karl, dort ist ein toter mensch in unserem haur2<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymous, du bist ein schiessekopf.<br /><br /><br />I reckon this is Gabe trying to inflict some of his "superior" Aryan brotherhood upon us.<br /><br /><br />JS;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-76291203188582708612009-09-11T08:56:25.401-05:002009-09-11T08:56:25.401-05:00It's a quote from a band called Lamas mit Hüte...It's a quote from a band called Lamas mit Hüten as well, at least once you turn the last word into something that's, y'know, actually German. The websites that mention them, I can't access at work, but they some comments seem to indicate associations with white supremacy and Ayranism.Dweller in Darknessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-78509194244164046032009-09-11T05:03:38.610-05:002009-09-11T05:03:38.610-05:00According to Google Translator, that means "K...According to Google Translator, that means "Karl, there's a dead man in our haur."<br /><br />I have absolutely no idea if that has anything to do with this post. Probably not.King of Ferretshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07893294460892136598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-18837394071361594472009-09-11T01:24:12.661-05:002009-09-11T01:24:12.661-05:00Karl, dort ist ein toter mensch in unserem haurKarl, dort ist ein toter mensch in unserem haurAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-70213409361381616872009-09-07T16:36:26.403-05:002009-09-07T16:36:26.403-05:00MWChase: That example also brings up two important...MWChase: That example also brings up two important points: generalizing from too small a sample size, and assigning significance after the fact. It's more likely that you'll get a royal flush than a hand consisting of the two of diamonds, the six of clubs, the ten of clubs, the four of hearts, and the Jack of Spades, because in any deck there are four possible royal flushes but only one possible hand like the one I described. A person dealt that latter hand could conclude that the hand is too improbable to have happened by chance, and so it must have been intentional. The problem is that they're assigning significance to that particular combination <i>after it has been dealt</i>, which is part of why it's not worth anything. <br /><br />The problem is that, while any particular outcome might be highly improbable, the existence of <i>some</i> outcome is virtually a given. Yes, the probability of getting any particular combination of cards is infinitesimal, but the probability of being dealt five cards is pretty well assured. <br /><br />The problem is that the only reason any outcome has significance is because we've decided on that significance <i>before</i> the outcome occurs. <br /><br />When trying to determine the odds of life forming exactly as it has, we're trying to do the same thing--assigning significance after the fact. We're sitting there with the <a href="http://www.snpp.com/episodes/2F09.html" rel="nofollow">royal sampler</a>, trying to argue that it's a worthwhile hand after it's been dealt, when the fact is that we could make the same argument for <i>any</i> outcome. <br /><br />It's the same problem as interpreting predictions after the fact. A prediction is only valuable if it gives you non-trivial information that you can interpret before the event happens. A prediction that only makes sense after the events it purports to describe is worthless.Tom Fosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13796424725228769265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-52130735706577759912009-09-05T21:54:23.224-05:002009-09-05T21:54:23.224-05:00Back on topic, I saw a similar way of addressing t...Back on topic, I saw a similar way of addressing the argument:<br /><br />Suppose you draw ten cards out of a deck. Now, there are fifty-two cards in a deck, so there are 52*51*50*49*48*47*46*45*44*43/(10!) = 158 billion possible hands of ten.<br /><br />The odds against drawing a particular hand, while they could be higher, are astronomical. If we hold that improbably events cannot happen without divine intervention, then presumably god intervenes at the start of every round of bridge.<br /><br />Just because an event is massively improbable, doesn't mean it's physically impossible. Not until we get into the kind of probabilities that thermodynamics deals with.<br /><br />That rather obviously segues into somebody sensing that I said that and claiming that evolution violates thermodynamics. Anybody who says that the Earth is a closed system is invited to live through last month's horrendous heat-wave up here.MWchasehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08195851187187771113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-62928777544585438712009-09-05T21:36:13.236-05:002009-09-05T21:36:13.236-05:00Let's move it over here. Further off-topic com...<a href="http://rockstarramblings.blogspot.com/2009/09/feedin-pen-for-troll.html" rel="nofollow">Let's move it over here</a>. Further off-topic comments on this derail will be deleted.<br /><br />Copying over existing comments to the main post, since I'd rather have this be about, you know, the Fine Tuning Argument.Bronze Doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10938257296504189967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-35471961226838912072009-09-05T19:42:31.084-05:002009-09-05T19:42:31.084-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.MWchasehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08195851187187771113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-22993637357034160482009-09-05T18:46:42.465-05:002009-09-05T18:46:42.465-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-42070018344985678032009-09-05T18:27:03.819-05:002009-09-05T18:27:03.819-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.MWchasehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08195851187187771113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-51817590759497505052009-09-05T18:14:16.941-05:002009-09-05T18:14:16.941-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-36616016826399522742009-09-04T20:02:07.928-05:002009-09-04T20:02:07.928-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bronze Doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10938257296504189967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-87041766761076152502009-09-04T17:28:08.003-05:002009-09-04T17:28:08.003-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Dark Jaguarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-16850954074563797832009-09-04T16:39:00.725-05:002009-09-04T16:39:00.725-05:00That cartoon was pure win.That cartoon was pure win.Laser Potatohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16143657204385385380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-77678891799599393772009-09-04T16:24:20.198-05:002009-09-04T16:24:20.198-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.djfavhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13165780321291494058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-92212571863407595832009-09-04T16:10:10.492-05:002009-09-04T16:10:10.492-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-91629074171570862372009-09-04T15:56:55.064-05:002009-09-04T15:56:55.064-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.James Knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-83350645233215201532009-09-04T13:37:08.996-05:002009-09-04T13:37:08.996-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.MWchasehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08195851187187771113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-82067799563162694642009-09-04T13:13:45.550-05:002009-09-04T13:13:45.550-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Yakarunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-71427479038471189622009-09-04T12:55:39.847-05:002009-09-04T12:55:39.847-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13030925.post-56098922059956021062009-09-03T03:55:37.133-05:002009-09-03T03:55:37.133-05:00Douglas Adams: "Imagine a puddle waking up on...Douglas Adams: "Imagine a puddle waking up one morning and thinking, 'This is an interesting world I find myself in, an interesting hole I find myself in, fits me rather neatly, doesn't it? In fact it fits me staggeringly well, must have been made to have me in it!' This is such a powerful idea that as the sun rises in the sky and the air heats up and as, gradually, the puddle gets smaller and smaller, it's still frantically hanging on to the notion that everything's going to be alright, because this world was meant to have him in it, was built to have him in it; so the moment he disappears catches him rather by surprise. I think this may be something we need to be on the watch out for."Duncnoreply@blogger.com