Fraternal Link Love

My brother's joining the skeptical blog-o-sphere. Didn't go for any of the cute names we dug up. Be sure to show him the ropes. Could use a little bit of help learning some html. I'll see about digging up the code for the sitemeter link. Imagine he'd like to know where his link love will inevitably come from.

44th Skeptics' Circle and Open Thread

The 44^th Skeptics' Circle is up.

Speak of whatever. But thou shalt not tell the press that I kidnapped Strong Bad's Lappy. Especially not to Strong Bad himself.

We Were ALL Thinking of Writing This

Via Steve_C on Pharyngula, I learn of this book, which is surely filled to the brim with good science, and maybe even good politics. Maybe I should see about getting a copy. If you do, be sure to tell me about it.

For those who don't know what I'm talking about, here's a link.

Doggerel #40: "I Was a Skeptic, Once."

Welcome back to "Doggerel," where I ramble on about words and phrases that are misused, abused, or just plain meaningless.

Whenever there's a "what is skepticism?" thread on the JREF forums, you can bet that there'll be a lot of debate, but I suspect that most of the people who use this bit of doggerel would be excluded from all the definitions, or at the very least, tucked away into a very weak sub-category.

To be simplistic about it, a skeptic is a person who wants to see evidence to back up a claim, especially "extraordinary" claims. For that reason, the claimant should be providing evidence, good arguments, etcetera. Unfortunately, this doggerel is often followed by appeals to other ways of knowing, anecdotes, and other spurious forms of (non-)logic.

A skeptic should know what it would take to convince him. By extension, ex-skeptics should know what it took to convince them. They should also know what wouldn't convince a skeptic. One example that comes to mind is dowsing and the Ouija board: They can be surprising, when they seem to move on their own, but you have to perform controlled tests to see if the answers they provide are accurate, and not the result of information leakage combined with an ideomotor effect. Not much point in positing a new entities when there's another known, probable explanation.

One thing I suspect contributes to the problem is the "Hollywood skeptic": Horror movies often have a contrarian straw man of a skeptic who doubts the existence of the monster right up until he's eaten by it. Fortunately for movie goers, reality is more often like the original Scooby Doo: It's always some guy in a mask. Unfortunately, however, it completely distorts what people think it means to really be a skeptic.

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Doggerel Index

Please Stay Clear of the Blog...

...until we've confirmed it won't blow up.

Did some minor html dinkering to add to the blog list on the right. I'm probably worrying about nothing, but if any problems show up, don't hesitate to point them out.

Update: Testing something. Updated the Doggerel Index, and it seems to be taking a long time. Shouldn't it just be republishing that one page, rather than all of them? So, will I be stuck on this one, too?

Second update: Yup. Seems the system is intent on republishing everything when I update one entry.

Shocking!

Conservatives, PZ, and I all actually agree on something! Sub-zero temperatures predicted for Hell.

Promoting a secular view of the way the world works does not mean we are obligated to censor references to mythical entities. I think "VeggieTales" is tedious dreck, and my kids were never into it, but some kids and parents are…and they should have the privilege of watching it. Reducing what children watch to inoffensive pablum, where every possible controversy and opinion is eradicated so that the boring message they all get is a toothless "be nice", is not how we want to improve the boob tube...

Puréeing television content is going to hurt the minority views most of all. That kids don't get to see some talking broccoli thank God on NBC doesn't mean they aren't going to be saturated in religious messages in the home and church, but it does mean that spineless television executives will point to this decision as a rationalization for removing any atheist or non-Christian expression from their shows, too.

Like PZ says, this is not what secularism is about. Unlike one of the Big Lies told by the Religious Wrong, we aren't out to eliminate all mentions of deities and other mythical entities from the world. People like me just don't want those mythological beings having influence in a inherently coercive institution like a government.

Quote of the Time Being #5

Posted by "Gilligan's Sister" in a troll-heavy comment thread at Orac's. The trolls prompted this response by Orac.

Just sit right back and you'll hear a tale,
A whale of a tale, whale.to
It started when the government bombed the WTC
And then it wasn't satisfied
So it started poisoning the kids

The secret chupacabre army in the underground base
Where they learned to fly UFOs
But the alien DNA experiment got out of hand
And they unleashed Lyme's Disease upon the land

Oh, the government's gonna get me soon
I can hear them knocking at my door
I wonder how the black helicopters found me
Mabye it was the tinfoil on my floor

So let's just not vaccinate
Let's shoot our kids with a Lupron bomb
Hold 'er down and listen to her cry
That's what the Geiers, Ayoub, AutismNotReality, and QuantumIdiot say makes me a good experimental Mom.

Nothing quite like the old appeal to ridicule to demonstrate just how ridiculous people's conspiracy delusions can get. What's especially silly is that there's no motive for a vaccine conspiracy: If it were money, they'd just go into decentralized quackery, which is much easier to cover up, and has a much larger profit margin. Just take a look at homeopathy. All I need is my reverse osmosis water filter and/or a bunch of "smarties."

Foamin' at the Mouth #3

Orac and PZ have the details. And I read this shortly after watching a DVR'd episode of Star Trek: DS9 where Chief O'Brien got stuck in a scripted Cardasian show trial that seemed particularly topical as well as reminiscent of McCarthyism, so I'm particularly foamy at the moment.

Well, I Gotta Blog Something.

There's plenty of other blog entries out there I could link to, but I don't quite feel like it. Think staying in the computer lab late the last two nights took it out of me. Also not quite in the mood for original skeptical blogging. So, I'll talk about one other topic I enjoy with a side of masochism: Videogames.

Well, the PS3 and Wii come out here in November. Better start bulking up my bank account again.

For the Wii, there's no contest: I need Zelda and Samus in order to have fun with my Wii... Does that still sound dirty? Mario Galaxies sounds like it could be fun, since I've been itching for another platformer. Curious about all the interesting things they'll program for the motion sensor in the controller. I was skeptical at first, but since it looks like they won't be half-hearted in their commitment to that sensor, I've gotten over that.

I'll probably delay on getting the PS3: The launch titles just don't catch my attention. I'll likely be holding out for Armored Core 4. Hope the guys at From decide to go full-on with the motion sensor in the PS3 controller like Nintendo: One of my biggest troubles with the AC: Nexus block is mixing together either dual analog, or the single analog with look up/down as buttons. If they can shift turn right/left and look up/down to the motion sensor, I'll probably be able to jump right in.

At least I'll likely be able to enjoy Okami for now, once I get it, as well as that soon-to-be-downgraded PSP on its way here.

Arrrrr!

Today be the International Talk Like a Pirate Day! Things are going well for me, me buckos. I've got a new 1.52 Firmware PSP and swag headed me way. Some games to trade in fer credit, and a sweet lass who swashbuckles ninja-style. 'Twould be an honor to cross swords with her.

Viking: "So, anyway..."

I be staying in the crow's net and keepin' an aye out for good homebrew software. None of that free movie and UMD game stuff. 'Twould be foolish to invoke the wrath of the navy, who sank that keyboard I was looking forward to. It's Talk Like a Pirate Day. Not Act.

Doggerel #39: "I Can See It, Why Can't You?"

Welcome back to "Doggerel," where I ramble on about words and phrases that are misused, abused, or just plain meaningless.

This particular bit of doggerel has many different contexts, since it's so general. Often, like "obvious," it's a sign that a person hasn't thought things through. This one is also closely related to "I know what I saw!"

Examples:

Intelligent Design: Many people claim that it's impossible not to see design everywhere. This strikes me as strange, since it seems "obvious" to me that the world wasn't designed, especially now that I know a thing or two about evolution. Some things work, and some things don't. The things that don't work die (natural selection) or get destroyed. (For instance, in the case of planets: If they aren't in an appropriate orbit, they fall into the sun or get flung out into the Kuiper Belt or wherever.) The world we see today is the result of a lot of self-pruning.

Psychic powers, Astrology, Tarot, etcetera: The perception of accuracy in these things stems mostly from the observer's mind, usually in the form of confirmation bias and the Forer effect: They're blinding themselves to mistakes and failures. For any of the believers reading this: This is one really good reason to make a recording of a reading. Your mind plays enough tricks with you, the psychic often doesn't need to.

Quackery: The appearance of improvement is not reliable when it comes to anecdotes. Human beings do not possess an infallible sense of status, or an infallible ability to determine the well-being of others. That's one reason the placebo effect exists: Anyone's perception can fail, especially in the direction of hope. You can see or feel what you hope or expect to. That's why things like double-blind placebo-controlled studies exist: Compare doing something to the illusion of doing something. If there's a big enough difference, it means you're really doing something. It's that simple.

Pareidolia "miracles": Try cloud-watching (or nebula-watching, see below) with a friend. You'll probably see a few things he can't, and vice-versa.

Data and Guinan are sitting at the row of windows, observing the spectacular view of the nebula.

GUINAN: I see... a Samarian coral fish... with its fins unfolded...

DATA: I believe what you are seeing is the effect of the fluid dynamic processes inherent to large scale motion of highly rarified gas.

GUINAN: No... first it was a fish... now I see a Mintonian sailing ship...

DATA: Where?

GUINAN: (points) Right there -- see how the two swirls come up to form a mast...

DATA: I do not see it... It is interesting that people try to find meaningful patterns in things that are essentially random. I have noticed that the images they perceive can sometimes suggest what they are thinking about at that particular moment... Besides, it is clear that this cloud formation most closely resembles a "bunny rabbit."

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Doggerel Index

Pointless Tinkering

Bumped into a fun little "For Dummies" cover generator via King Aardvark of his Kick in the Nuts blog. Have fun.

Sit! Stay! Good Blog. #3

Via the 43^rd Skeptics' Circle, I learn of the existence of the Action Skeptics. They have a little fun with ad homenims and non-ad homenims while showing plenty of link love. They had some piratical fun at a university, too.

So... Sit! Stay! Good blog.

Meanwhile, pardon me while I freak out. I dropped my PSP. Now the power switch is loose and unresponsive. :(

UPDATE on PSP: Seems I can get it fixed for $59 by getting the power system replaced... Or I can hope that the power switch was all that was broken and replace that myself for $10, shiping and handling, and a little labor... (Seems the whole power system is broken, not just the switch: The charger doesn't make the light come on.) Or I can hope that I can keep a low winning bid on eBay for a 1.50 firmware PSP for the next 3 days, 5 hours.

43rd Skeptics' Circle and Open Thread

Hi. I'm the Bronze Critical Thinking Dog, and when people use stupid arguments, that makes my friend sad.

Open thread. Discussion about whether or not I should be deported to the island of inappropriate mascots is FORBIDDEN.

A Curiosity

I've noticed one strange thing on my site traffic: There's always a link from a Google image search for the crackhead from one of Ryan's old entries. Just why the [frell] is that? I want hypotheses, people!

They Waste Their Time So You Won't Have To

Seems that comment I quoted the other day came from another source: Here. It's quite good. Pretty much debunks 9/11 CTs just by using common sense and some quick hankerchief math.

No need to get into things like what temperatures steel weakens (NOT melts, you straw men factories over at Loose Change) at, and the dB level of explosives.

My favorite bit is some not-unreasonable psychobabble near the end.

And that, is the conspiracy mindset.

It's not a belief in corrupt leaders. Hell, we all believe in corrupt leaders. It's a belief in a corrupt everybody. It's driving around in a world where every single person you see out of your windshield is utterly bloodthirsty and amoral, all except for you and a few, brave friends. What could make you feel more important than that?

You can see the attraction right away. Most people, to feel special, have to actually do something special. But why not do what these guys do, and just make the rest of the world out to be wretched? Hell, once we've painted everyone else as mindless or murderous, all we have to do to feel superior to them is roll out of bed.

Remember what I said earlier about Dylan Avery and how it was probably just a desire for fame that drove him to do all this? Look at the parallel here. At the heart of all this is that basic human need to feel special somehow, twisted in the most warped and corrosive way imaginable.

In conclusion, the 9/11 Conspiracy Guys aren't evil and they aren't liars. They're merely filling a basic human need, using their imaginations and paranoia to elevate themselves to a level the real world will never elevate them to. Also, they're retarded.

Bear in mind that most of this analysis applies equally to all large conspiracies: Sooner or later, an attempted large conspiracy will bump into someone who can't be paid off, and with the wonder of the information age, it's awfully hard to silence someone.

Edited to fix quote. And to add: I'm tired of being called a government-trusting sheeple AND a distrustful cynic by woos. If anything, these nuts are the ultimate cynics.

9/11, Five Years Later

I've been having a hard time articulating my thoughts about 9/11, so this post'll have plenty of links to other people's thoughts as they come in:

Orac's thoughts.

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One of the things that irritates me is the crowd of conspiracy nuts. Screw Loose Change is one of the good groups out there to take a stand for truth and logic. Here's some notable items of theirs:

A post detailing the big problem with massive coverups. Here's a good quote from the comment section:

Nutbar: "Well, the NIST "report" cost 20 million so that buys a LOT of "experts" (paid liars) and I'm sure you'd be happy with a fraction of that."

default.xbe: "its a general agreement among CTers that everyone has their price, and generally its assumed that prise is pathetically low

so ill ask a question ive asked before:

whats your price nessie? how much to buy you out so you never speak of the "truth" again?

if everyone has their price you must have one too, and if you are "above" that, why do you assume no one else is?"

One wonders how anyone could bankroll a world-wide super-conspiracy.

There's also this site, via Screw Loose Change.

There's also the Loose Change Viewer's Guide by Gravy of the JREF Forums.

Meet Molly the Moggie

Look what my family found in our back yard. She started out as a friendly anonymous cat. Turns out that although she looked well-fed, she was hungry. Then we started to suspect that she's pregnant and got dumped for getting that way.

Anyway, we got her a collar, and we'll be taking her to a vet to make sure she's eating for more than one. Squirt's slowly getting used to her being in the back yard, but I don't think we should let them bump noses just yet, so Molly'll remain an outdoor cat for a while.

So, in the meantime, if any of you out there have advice for dealing with a pregnant cat, feel free to drop it in the comments. If you happen to be in the east Texas area and are interested in a kitten at some as yet undetermined point in the future, drop me something in my Gmail inbox.

UPDATE: Seems Molly wasn't pregnant, just had a little pudge: She's already been fixed, so that's one extra bit of evidence for the dump hypothesis, though it pretty much falsifies the reason we had guessed as to why she was possibly dumped. Of course, the possibility remains that she's a runaway. Oh well.

I Luv YouTube. I Hate Anti-Vaxxers

Bringing out my +3 flaming anti-vaxxer bane tire iron to show you this, via Orac. It's simply amazing how dispicable the characters involved in the autism curebie industry are. And that's before you get to the problems with their research and such.

Anyway, here are the videos, for those who want to save a click or two:

Doggerel #38: "You're Just Mean!"

Welcome back to "Doggerel," where I ramble on about words and phrases that are misused, abused, or just plain meaningless.

This bit of doggerel is quite common, and functions as an ad homenim, appeal to motivation, and red herring combo platter. My motivatons for presenting arguments has nothing to do with the validity of my arguments. For that reason, talking about my alleged meanness serves only to function as a subject change.

But enough about that. I don't present arguments because I'm mean. I present them because I have a duty to the truth, and to sharing the truth. Some people may not find my arguments comforting, but that's no reason to jump to the conclusion that I'm performing some sort of emotional attack.

Often, I'm quite critical of things I like: If I complain about problems in a videogame to the producers, they may try to eliminate those problems in the sequel. It's often the same for the paranormal: I think it'd be supremely nifty if magic or psychic powers existed. The world would be a better place if diluted water could cure cancer.

The problem with those things is that the best proponents of them aren't doing a very good job, and actually make excuses not to do a good job. Science works because criticism drives improvements in experiments. I don't like excuses not to address criticism. It feels weird when people who are most vocal about their support for something are the ones doing the minimum to keep the idea alive, but still in critical condition.

As the Huntsman's signature goes, science is about crash-testing hypotheses. Bad hypotheses should die, and good hypotheses should thrive. An idea shouldn't be forced to remain in limbo just because someone likes it.

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Doggerel Index